Rockies hope to extend charge as they battle Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) -- Don't look now, but the Colorado Rockies may about to be putting together one of those strong September runs that has propelled them into the postseason in years past.

After climbing back into the National League West race with a needed sweep of the division leader in their last series, the Rockies will have their playoff legitimacy tested when the team with the best record in the Senior Circuit, the Cincinnati Reds, pays a visit to Coors Field for a four-game set which begins this afternoon.

Colorado has prevailed in 10 of its past 14 contests and pulled within 4 1/2 games of free-falling San Diego in the NL West standings after winning all three meetings with the Padres over the weekend. The Rockies completed the sweep with Sunday's 4-2 triumph in which Melvin Mora came through with a tie- breaking two-run single in the top of the seventh inning.

"We've done a great job in this series and as of late of taking advantage of things that are there in front of us," said Colorado manager Jim Tracy after Sunday's result. "At this time of year, that is what you have to do."

September surges are certainly nothing new to the Rockies. The club won 14 of its final 15 regular-season tests to claim the NL Wild Card during its memorable 2007 season, and went 10-1 to start the month last season to nail down another playoff berth.

Troy Tulowitzki homered and also knocked in a pair of runs during yesterday's victory, while Carlos Gonzalez finished 3-for-5 for Colorado to raise his NL- leading average to .337. The standout outfielder is batting a scorching .529 (27-for-51) with six homers and 16 RBI over the course of a current 13-game hitting streak.

Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa (6-4) held the sputtering Padres to two runs over the first six innings, with relievers Matt Belisle and Huston Street combining for three scoreless frames the rest of the way.

Colorado now returns home to take on a tough Cincinnati squad that tops the NL with a 79-57 record and holds a seven-game advantage on second-place St. Louis in the Central Division, although the Cardinals closed the gap a bit by taking two of three matchups from the Reds this past weekend.

St. Louis came through with a 4-2 come-from-behind win in Sunday's rubber match, with ex-Rockie Matt Holliday's three-run homer in the bottom of the sixth inning providing the deciding margin.

Cincinnati had broken a scoreless tie on Orlando Cabrera's two-run double in the top of the fifth, but mustered just five other hits off Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter and three relievers on the afternoon.

Homer Bailey (3-3) gave up Holliday's go-ahead blast and allowed four runs in all while striking out four batters in six innings of work.

The Reds still lead the NL in both team batting average and runs scored, but their potent offense figures to receive a challenge from Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez in today's opener. The 2010 All-Star Game starter is locked in a three-way tie for the league lead with 17 wins, even though he's been stuck on that number for more than a month now.

Jimenez has gone 0-4 over five starts that followed an August 4 verdict over San Francisco, but can't be solely to blame for his drought. The hard-throwing right-hander has posted a 3.00 earned run average over that winless stretch, with the Rockies scoring two times or less in each of those defeats.

The native Dominican had some more tough luck this past Wednesday in San Francisco, where he limited the Giants to two runs on four hits while striking out 10 over eight strong innings. Nonetheless, he came out on the short end of a 2-1 decision.

Jimenez has been tough to beat at Coors Field this year, however, with the 26- year-old sporting an 8-1 mark along with a 3.16 ERA in 12 home starts. In four career encounters with the Reds, he's 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA.

Aaron Harang draws the assignment for the Reds in today's opener and will be making his second start since coming back from a two-month stint on the disabled list because of recurring back spasms. The towering right-hander pitched four innings in his return and allowed three runs (one earned) on eight hits while walking three batters in Tuesday's no-decision versus Milwaukee.

Harang is 6-7 with a 4.92 ERA over 18 starts this season, but only one of those wins has come on the road. The veteran has fared well at hitter-friendly Coors Field in the past, however, having compiled a 2-1 record with a 3.15 ERA over three previous starts at the spacious venue.

The 31-year-old is 4-2 lifetime against the Rockies and has a 3.00 ERA over those six starts.

Harang was on the mound for Cincinnati's last win at Coors Field, which took place on August 22, 2008. The Reds have lost six in a row to the Rockies in Denver following that outing and are just 3-15 over the last 18 meetings between these teams.

Cincinnati did win two of three bouts against Colorado at Great American Ball Park from July 16-18, however.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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